Friday, October 05, 2007

Friday Football Picks, Week 6

Man...two losing weeks in a row. I went 3-5 last week to take my season record to 19-20-1. Not too good, but maybe I can rebound this week from the mid-season slump. We'll see, because there are a lots of tough games this weekend!

On to the picks:

Oklahoma vs. Texas (+11), at Dallas: No question that last week's Sooners were looking ahead. They didn't look all that sharp in Colorado and still had their chances to win...so I tend to think that Oklahoma's loss was an aberration. On top of that, Texas lost to K-State, which only highlights that they're still looking for an identity. Granted they gave up touchdowns on kick-off, punt, and interception returns but they turned it over a lot, too. Horns QB McCoy is banged up, too. I just don't see how the Sooners can't win. Diner Prediction: Oklahoma 28, Texas 13.

Vanderbilt (+7.5) at Auburn: Will the real Auburn Tigers team please stand up? Will the real Brandon Cox please wake up? Apparently, he struggles when the Auburn team plays the 11:30AM SEC television game...Auburn's only losses last year were during that time slot, and they lost their only game in that time slot this year. Not to mention that Auburn will be wearing throwback uniforms celebrating the 1957 National Champions and coming off the high of beating Florida. And, Vandy has had a few weeks to get ready for this contest. The problem is that they're still Vanderbilt. Diner Prediction: Auburn 23, Vanderbilt 14.

Florida (+9) at L.S.U.: Florida's young secondary got exposed last week. L.S.U.'s defense is better than Auburn's, and Auburn held the high-scoring Gators to 17 points. Now, I don't know how well the Bengal Tigers match up offensively throwing against the Gator D. But, here's what I know: L.S.U. at home. At night. With revenge from last year on their minds should carry them to a win. The question is whether it's a TD or a TD & a field goal. Diner Prediction: L.S.U. 24, Florida 14.

Nebraska (+7) at Missouri: Don't think I didn't love it when Barry Switzer, who is incredibly entertaining since he left coaching, said that the Big 12, as a football conference, was "horrible." It's true...even if people here don't want to admit it. And this game is more or less proof of that. This Nebraska team gave up 40 to Ball State, but yet has managed to stick around in the top 25. Missouri is better than they are. They're at home. They've got Chase Daniel. They'll score points, and I don't think the 7 that the Huskers get is enough. Diner Prediction: Missouri 31, Nebraska 21.

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Rutgers: Thought we'd step into the Big East for a bit. The Bearcats are on the rise, and Rutgers seems a little down compared to last year's Cinderella season. For some reason, I still have it in my mind that Cincinnati is always Auburn's homecoming opponent and me and my fraternity brothers making deals to leave when Auburn was ahead by 35 and wondering if we'd make it to halftime...and my Rutgers memories involve last year's enthusiasm. I hope that hasn't clouded my objectivity. Diner Prediction: Rutgers 24, Cincinnati 17.

Georgia (+1.5) at Tennessee: Georgia runs. And runs. And runs some more. The Vols remind me a lot of Texas this season. There's a lot of rumbling about whether or not the game has passed Fulmer by. I think the Vols are pointing to this game to get their season turned around...and if they win, it will. I think Tennessee might lead at halftime, but I just don't think they'll have enough to finish. The Vols season may get ugly afterward, too. Diner Prediction: Georgia 23, Tennessee 21.

Virginia Tech (+5.5) at Clemson: Clemson at home...which I think is one of the underrated atmosphere's in college football. VaTech, like Texas, is trying to find an identity on offense and Clemson played a dominant first half against Florida State in the same environment. They fell victim to sporadic Georgia Tech last week on the road, but I think they'll rebound in a low scoring game. Diner Prediction: Clemson 17, Virginia Tech 10.

Wisconsin (+2.5) at Illinois: I think Wisconsin feels slighted because they're in the top 10 yet Ron Zook's Fighting Illini are favored. I'm not sold that Illinois is at that level yet, but they've definitely improved since Zook's arrival. I think the Badgers have something to prove to the country and will set out to do it in short order. Diner Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Illinois 13.

In the area high school games I've been faring a bit better...partly because there's no point spread and there have been some obvious mismatches in the two weeks I've picked them, but I'm 5-1 so far this year. Here's my thoughts on the local teams for tonight's games:

Flower Mound at Hebron: Hebron has won three straight and they have a quarterback who throws for about 250 yards per game. They've also got a running back that ran for over 150 yards last week, so I think they're a pretty good football team. The Jaguars, however, have struggled to balance the pre-season hype. As always, Coach Vanderford's teams throw the ball well, but I don't think they're as balanced as Hebron. Defensively, the Jags are pretty good, though. It'll be a close one. Diner Prediction: Hebron 28, Flower Mound 24.

Lewisville at Newman-Smith: Newman-Smith is, well, to put it lightly...struggling. They only average a touchdown a game scoring, and that's about all they'll get against an improving Fighting Farmer team--who upset Coppell's highly ranked team last week (and held them to -15 yards rushing!). They've also got a strong running game, too. What's new about that? Diner Prediction: Lewisville 31, Newman-Smith 6.

Creekview at Marcus: Marcus is 4-0 and on a roll. Granted, the toughest stretch of their season is coming up, but I don't think MHS is looking ahead just yet. Their new coach has them focused and disciplined. We'll see in the Battle of the Mound and the Battle of the Axe how well their talent stacks up, but focus & discipline will be enough this week and the Marauders will go to 5-0. Diner Prediction: Marcus 27, Creekview 10.

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