The Diner Friday Football Picks, Week #3
I have to say that I'm pretty pumped about my 6-2 record against the point spread last week. For those of you keeping track on the season, I'm 11-5 thus far, which is pretty darn impressive for those of you who don't know about such things...and 6-2 is pretty much phenomenal. I lost badly on Michigan (again!) and South Carolina upset Georgia (I wasn't alone in overrating the Bulldogs, either)...but other than that I was pretty much "on." I did pick Auburn to win, but I really did think South Florida (a bowl team from last year & will likely win 10 games) would cover & they actually won in overtime.
With that said & done, we'll see if I can continue this two-week winning streak and there are a lot of good games on the docket:
Arkansas (+3) at Alabama: The Razorbacks can run, man. McFadden is a legitimate Heisman candidate and Alabama doesn't have a legitimate star, really. But these two teams always play close and the series is like 9-8 in favor of Bama. While I think the Hogs are more talented, I really do believe that Saban & staff are better coaches than Nutt & his staff. The oddsmakers pretty much see the game as a toss-up with Bama getting 3 points at home. I see it as Bama having two weeks to get ready for this one, making them a bit better, and also getting three points at home in what I think will be an incredibly hungry Tide crowd. Diner Prediction: Alabama 23, Arkansas 14.
Mississippi State (+13) at Auburn: This Auburn team is an enigma. Did they play two improving bowl teams to the wire or did they struggle against middling Big East & Big 12 teams? Did they struggle offensively or did the other teams have defenses that caused it? Is Auburn QB Brandon Cox regressing or surrounded by subpar upperclassmen talent? Auburn's at home, they'll try to use the formula that won 11 games last year: Establish the run, use the short passing game to open up even more runs, and stifling defense combining with a strong kicking game. Auburn has shut out State the last two years, too. They won't this year, but they should cover--even in the early Saturday games where they struggled last year. Diner Prediction: Auburn 27, Mississippi State 13.
Tennessee (+7.5) at Florida: Florida has tuned up against weak competition and the Vols went on the road at Cal and, with the exception of a punt return and fluke fumble return, went toe-to-toe with the Bears. The line started with Tennessee getting 10 and now they're getting a touchdown, so lots of folks liked the Vols and two scores, but not many like one. People have been calling for the demise of Florida after their national championship year and graduating so many playmakers on defense...and they might be right and I'd have taken 10. But for some reason, I think the Gators will win at home. Diner Prediction: Florida 28, Tennessee 20.
Boston College (+7) at Georgia Tech: Every year, people get jacked about B.C. having a breakout year and they never break out. ESPN GameDay guys love 'em but they always seem to disappoint. The Jackets have been getting it done, throttling Notre Dame (not as impressive as it looked at the time) and did what they were supposed to against Samford. I like Georgia Tech at night, at home. Diner Prediction: Georgia Tech 34, Boston College 20.
Louisville at Kentucky (+6.5): Is it me or does Louisville look a little vulnerable without Petrino at the helm? Kentucky is pointing at this game as one which will show they've turned a corner and can compete with the Cardinals. The problem is this game will look like an Arena League game because no one will play solid defense. In a game like that it will favor the more offensively minded football team, which makes the logical pick Louisville. For some reason, though, I've got an existential feeling that Kentucky has indeed turned a corner of sorts...and getting points at home is good in this case. Diner Prediction: Kentucky 44, Louisville 38.
Ohio State at Washington (+4): Ohio State, and the Big 10 in general, have been overrated the last two seasons. Ohio State struggled last week against inferior competition and now they have to go on the road. Big 10 power football against speedy Pac 10 finesse offenses. Well, we saw what Florida's speed did to Ohio State in the big game last year. We'll see sometime similar this weekend, but not on that scale. Diner Prediction: Washington 23, Ohio State 20.
U.S.C. at Nebraska (+9.5): Media darlings U.S.C. go on the road to Nebraska in prime time, at night. In my youth, I never thought I'd see Nebraska get points at home, much less two scores. So, I think an upset is possible, it isn't likely...I just don't think the 2nd or 3rd best team in the Big 12 is as good as the class of the Pac 10. While U.S.C. gets initial hype every year and the media loves them, I think they'll have enough and have enough to cover. Diner Prediction: U.S.C. 28, Nebraska 17.
Notre Dame (+7.5) at Michigan: Michigan? I really thought they'd rebound against the Ducks. And I really think they're better than this bad Notre Dame team that can't find a quarterback. Or course, Michigan's starter is out, too, which may be a blessing. That isn't saying much. But I simply can't imagine Michigan losing three in the Big House. Period. Of course, I can't imagine Notre Dame losing three straight, either. Hmmm. I really have mixed feelings about all this, but I still think Michigan has more talent and they're at home. Diner Prediction: Michigan 24, Notre Dame 10.
That's this week's picks...your thoughts?
I have to say that I'm pretty pumped about my 6-2 record against the point spread last week. For those of you keeping track on the season, I'm 11-5 thus far, which is pretty darn impressive for those of you who don't know about such things...and 6-2 is pretty much phenomenal. I lost badly on Michigan (again!) and South Carolina upset Georgia (I wasn't alone in overrating the Bulldogs, either)...but other than that I was pretty much "on." I did pick Auburn to win, but I really did think South Florida (a bowl team from last year & will likely win 10 games) would cover & they actually won in overtime.
With that said & done, we'll see if I can continue this two-week winning streak and there are a lot of good games on the docket:
Arkansas (+3) at Alabama: The Razorbacks can run, man. McFadden is a legitimate Heisman candidate and Alabama doesn't have a legitimate star, really. But these two teams always play close and the series is like 9-8 in favor of Bama. While I think the Hogs are more talented, I really do believe that Saban & staff are better coaches than Nutt & his staff. The oddsmakers pretty much see the game as a toss-up with Bama getting 3 points at home. I see it as Bama having two weeks to get ready for this one, making them a bit better, and also getting three points at home in what I think will be an incredibly hungry Tide crowd. Diner Prediction: Alabama 23, Arkansas 14.
Mississippi State (+13) at Auburn: This Auburn team is an enigma. Did they play two improving bowl teams to the wire or did they struggle against middling Big East & Big 12 teams? Did they struggle offensively or did the other teams have defenses that caused it? Is Auburn QB Brandon Cox regressing or surrounded by subpar upperclassmen talent? Auburn's at home, they'll try to use the formula that won 11 games last year: Establish the run, use the short passing game to open up even more runs, and stifling defense combining with a strong kicking game. Auburn has shut out State the last two years, too. They won't this year, but they should cover--even in the early Saturday games where they struggled last year. Diner Prediction: Auburn 27, Mississippi State 13.
Tennessee (+7.5) at Florida: Florida has tuned up against weak competition and the Vols went on the road at Cal and, with the exception of a punt return and fluke fumble return, went toe-to-toe with the Bears. The line started with Tennessee getting 10 and now they're getting a touchdown, so lots of folks liked the Vols and two scores, but not many like one. People have been calling for the demise of Florida after their national championship year and graduating so many playmakers on defense...and they might be right and I'd have taken 10. But for some reason, I think the Gators will win at home. Diner Prediction: Florida 28, Tennessee 20.
Boston College (+7) at Georgia Tech: Every year, people get jacked about B.C. having a breakout year and they never break out. ESPN GameDay guys love 'em but they always seem to disappoint. The Jackets have been getting it done, throttling Notre Dame (not as impressive as it looked at the time) and did what they were supposed to against Samford. I like Georgia Tech at night, at home. Diner Prediction: Georgia Tech 34, Boston College 20.
Louisville at Kentucky (+6.5): Is it me or does Louisville look a little vulnerable without Petrino at the helm? Kentucky is pointing at this game as one which will show they've turned a corner and can compete with the Cardinals. The problem is this game will look like an Arena League game because no one will play solid defense. In a game like that it will favor the more offensively minded football team, which makes the logical pick Louisville. For some reason, though, I've got an existential feeling that Kentucky has indeed turned a corner of sorts...and getting points at home is good in this case. Diner Prediction: Kentucky 44, Louisville 38.
Ohio State at Washington (+4): Ohio State, and the Big 10 in general, have been overrated the last two seasons. Ohio State struggled last week against inferior competition and now they have to go on the road. Big 10 power football against speedy Pac 10 finesse offenses. Well, we saw what Florida's speed did to Ohio State in the big game last year. We'll see sometime similar this weekend, but not on that scale. Diner Prediction: Washington 23, Ohio State 20.
U.S.C. at Nebraska (+9.5): Media darlings U.S.C. go on the road to Nebraska in prime time, at night. In my youth, I never thought I'd see Nebraska get points at home, much less two scores. So, I think an upset is possible, it isn't likely...I just don't think the 2nd or 3rd best team in the Big 12 is as good as the class of the Pac 10. While U.S.C. gets initial hype every year and the media loves them, I think they'll have enough and have enough to cover. Diner Prediction: U.S.C. 28, Nebraska 17.
Notre Dame (+7.5) at Michigan: Michigan? I really thought they'd rebound against the Ducks. And I really think they're better than this bad Notre Dame team that can't find a quarterback. Or course, Michigan's starter is out, too, which may be a blessing. That isn't saying much. But I simply can't imagine Michigan losing three in the Big House. Period. Of course, I can't imagine Notre Dame losing three straight, either. Hmmm. I really have mixed feelings about all this, but I still think Michigan has more talent and they're at home. Diner Prediction: Michigan 24, Notre Dame 10.
That's this week's picks...your thoughts?
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