Friday Football Picks, Week 6
What?
You thought because I was on vacation I wouldn't pick the football games? When football takes a vacation, The Diner will take a vacation from picking the games, folks.
What?
You thought three straight weeks of poor picking (2-6 last week, ugh), taking my season record to 21-26-1 would discourage me? Hardly, folks.
It's football, folks. It's bigger than all of us.
So...
on to the games for this week AND a couple of bonus picks.
Auburn (+3) at Arkansas. Auburn is to Florida what Arkansas is to Auburn. That is, the Razorbacks seem to beat Auburn no matter how up or down the team is. McFadden and Jones might be the best running back tandem in the country and their style of power football matches up well with Auburn's weakness on defense due to their smaller, faster, pass-defense style. Those are the main reasons I can think that Arkansas is favored at home over an Auburn team that's good and getting better. However, that's the reason I like Auburn even with all the injuries. The head coach tends to downplay his talent and when he says they're "good and getting better" I think he knows something. Diner Prediction: Auburn 23, Arkansas 21.
L.S.U. at Kentucky (+10): Kentucky's finesse & speed against L.S.U.'s incredible defense. I don't see Kentucky's home field as much of an advantage...in fact, the only advantage I see Kentucky having is the reality that L.S.U. put so much energy into the Florida game and possibly having a slow start. But, talent usually wins out, and it will Saturday. Diner Prediction: L.S.U. 31, Kentucky 20.
Texas A&M (+8.5) at Texas Tech: Granted the Tech folks are in trouble once again for provocative t-shirts, but it's nothing compared to the rumor mill swirling around Francione at A&M. It has to be a distraction by now, and the Aggies have struggled at home against the same competition that Tech had a chance to win on the road. Everything points to Tech in this nasty rivalry, but I think the Aggies are going to rally the troops in this us-against-them mindset. It won't be enough, but I'll take the points. Diner Prediction: Texas Tech 31, Texas A&M 27.
Purdue (+5.5) at Michigan: Tough to read Michigan this year, but I think they've righted the ship. Purdue is good, but I think since Michigan's figured it out and playing better, they'll have enough to win, but I'm struggling with the points. Purdue can score them in bunches against inferior competition, and they'll score some against a underplaying Wolverine defense. Diner Prediction: Michigan 31, Purdue 28.
Oregon State (+14) at California: The Beavers are re-building...again. They're scrappy little underdogs that I always kind of like, but the Cal Bears are trying to nudge their way into the BCS computer polls that get released this week. Every game for them on the schedule is now a showcase. I think they'll blast away if they can. Diner Prediction: California 41, Oregon Sate 24.
Missouri (+10.5) at Oklahoma: Mizzou catches the Sooners at the best time...after the Texas game in which they struggled and won. The problem is that Oklahoma hasn't forgotten their loss to Colorado, and they're at home. They also have a chance to climb back in the BCS race, too. Diner Prediction: Oklahoma 35, Missouri 24.
Oklahoma State (+3.5) at Nebraska: I think Nebraska only gets to be favored in this game because they're Nebraska. It's the same reason they stay in the polls when they lose pretty much every game of consequence they've played lately. Of course, OSU has been snakebit lately, too...finding ways to lose games they should win. Games like this between to underachieving teams are a perfect example of how far Big 12 football has fallen in the grand scheme of college football. Diner Prediction: Oklahoma State 35, Nebraska 31.
Alabama at Ole Miss (+6): Alabama's a riddle this year, particularly in games like this. Just when you count 'em out, they get things going again...and I'd be willing to bet that they've had some intense practices after their near meltdown against Houston. Funny, but I think Orgeron is going to turn things around about ats well as you can turn things around at Ole Miss. So, it's a tough game to predict, and it's the early SEC games where weird things seem to happen. I think Bama gets by. Diner Prediction: Alabama 21, Ole Miss 13.
High School Picks: Keep in mind that for some strange reason, I'm actually 8-1 doing these. Hmmm.
Flower Mound vs. Marcus at Texas Stadium: I'm a big believer in the Marauders. They run the "I." They play stingy defense. They excel in the kicking game. They win the 4th quarters. That's good coaching, folks. And, while Cody Vanderford has always been a good coach, for some reason this year the Jags just haven't had the kind of season folks were expecting after they made the playoffs last year. I think the game will play out true to form in this case. Diner Prediction: Marcus 24, Flower Mound 14.
Hebron vs. Lewisville: Lewisville has been playing some pretty good football in the tradtional LHS way...run, run, run. Hebron is playing pretty well this season, too. It should be a fantastic game, and for some reason I think LHS is looking a little more toward the Axe game next week and that should be just enough to push Hebron past them. Diner Prediction: Hebron 21, Lewisville 14.
Argyle vs. Bowie: I really like the way Argyle has done things in all their programs. Band. Football. Whatever. It's a good school with good coaches and they do things the right way. I think Argyle will win because of their offense and their special teams are better. Diner Prediction: Argyle 27, Bowie 17.
Bonus Pick:
New England at Dallas (+5.5): The Boys were exposed a little last week, but at the same time know they can win when they play as poorly as they did on Monday. The problem is that the Pats coach knows a little something about defense, and the New England offense will have fun with the Cowboys secondary. Moss will pick on the corners and Brady can get him the ball. I suspect the Cowboys will have a tough time on Sunday. Diner Prediction: New England 30, Dallas 21.
There you have it, folks...what do you think?
What?
You thought because I was on vacation I wouldn't pick the football games? When football takes a vacation, The Diner will take a vacation from picking the games, folks.
What?
You thought three straight weeks of poor picking (2-6 last week, ugh), taking my season record to 21-26-1 would discourage me? Hardly, folks.
It's football, folks. It's bigger than all of us.
So...
on to the games for this week AND a couple of bonus picks.
Auburn (+3) at Arkansas. Auburn is to Florida what Arkansas is to Auburn. That is, the Razorbacks seem to beat Auburn no matter how up or down the team is. McFadden and Jones might be the best running back tandem in the country and their style of power football matches up well with Auburn's weakness on defense due to their smaller, faster, pass-defense style. Those are the main reasons I can think that Arkansas is favored at home over an Auburn team that's good and getting better. However, that's the reason I like Auburn even with all the injuries. The head coach tends to downplay his talent and when he says they're "good and getting better" I think he knows something. Diner Prediction: Auburn 23, Arkansas 21.
L.S.U. at Kentucky (+10): Kentucky's finesse & speed against L.S.U.'s incredible defense. I don't see Kentucky's home field as much of an advantage...in fact, the only advantage I see Kentucky having is the reality that L.S.U. put so much energy into the Florida game and possibly having a slow start. But, talent usually wins out, and it will Saturday. Diner Prediction: L.S.U. 31, Kentucky 20.
Texas A&M (+8.5) at Texas Tech: Granted the Tech folks are in trouble once again for provocative t-shirts, but it's nothing compared to the rumor mill swirling around Francione at A&M. It has to be a distraction by now, and the Aggies have struggled at home against the same competition that Tech had a chance to win on the road. Everything points to Tech in this nasty rivalry, but I think the Aggies are going to rally the troops in this us-against-them mindset. It won't be enough, but I'll take the points. Diner Prediction: Texas Tech 31, Texas A&M 27.
Purdue (+5.5) at Michigan: Tough to read Michigan this year, but I think they've righted the ship. Purdue is good, but I think since Michigan's figured it out and playing better, they'll have enough to win, but I'm struggling with the points. Purdue can score them in bunches against inferior competition, and they'll score some against a underplaying Wolverine defense. Diner Prediction: Michigan 31, Purdue 28.
Oregon State (+14) at California: The Beavers are re-building...again. They're scrappy little underdogs that I always kind of like, but the Cal Bears are trying to nudge their way into the BCS computer polls that get released this week. Every game for them on the schedule is now a showcase. I think they'll blast away if they can. Diner Prediction: California 41, Oregon Sate 24.
Missouri (+10.5) at Oklahoma: Mizzou catches the Sooners at the best time...after the Texas game in which they struggled and won. The problem is that Oklahoma hasn't forgotten their loss to Colorado, and they're at home. They also have a chance to climb back in the BCS race, too. Diner Prediction: Oklahoma 35, Missouri 24.
Oklahoma State (+3.5) at Nebraska: I think Nebraska only gets to be favored in this game because they're Nebraska. It's the same reason they stay in the polls when they lose pretty much every game of consequence they've played lately. Of course, OSU has been snakebit lately, too...finding ways to lose games they should win. Games like this between to underachieving teams are a perfect example of how far Big 12 football has fallen in the grand scheme of college football. Diner Prediction: Oklahoma State 35, Nebraska 31.
Alabama at Ole Miss (+6): Alabama's a riddle this year, particularly in games like this. Just when you count 'em out, they get things going again...and I'd be willing to bet that they've had some intense practices after their near meltdown against Houston. Funny, but I think Orgeron is going to turn things around about ats well as you can turn things around at Ole Miss. So, it's a tough game to predict, and it's the early SEC games where weird things seem to happen. I think Bama gets by. Diner Prediction: Alabama 21, Ole Miss 13.
High School Picks: Keep in mind that for some strange reason, I'm actually 8-1 doing these. Hmmm.
Flower Mound vs. Marcus at Texas Stadium: I'm a big believer in the Marauders. They run the "I." They play stingy defense. They excel in the kicking game. They win the 4th quarters. That's good coaching, folks. And, while Cody Vanderford has always been a good coach, for some reason this year the Jags just haven't had the kind of season folks were expecting after they made the playoffs last year. I think the game will play out true to form in this case. Diner Prediction: Marcus 24, Flower Mound 14.
Hebron vs. Lewisville: Lewisville has been playing some pretty good football in the tradtional LHS way...run, run, run. Hebron is playing pretty well this season, too. It should be a fantastic game, and for some reason I think LHS is looking a little more toward the Axe game next week and that should be just enough to push Hebron past them. Diner Prediction: Hebron 21, Lewisville 14.
Argyle vs. Bowie: I really like the way Argyle has done things in all their programs. Band. Football. Whatever. It's a good school with good coaches and they do things the right way. I think Argyle will win because of their offense and their special teams are better. Diner Prediction: Argyle 27, Bowie 17.
Bonus Pick:
New England at Dallas (+5.5): The Boys were exposed a little last week, but at the same time know they can win when they play as poorly as they did on Monday. The problem is that the Pats coach knows a little something about defense, and the New England offense will have fun with the Cowboys secondary. Moss will pick on the corners and Brady can get him the ball. I suspect the Cowboys will have a tough time on Sunday. Diner Prediction: New England 30, Dallas 21.
There you have it, folks...what do you think?
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