Tuesday, January 01, 2008

Diner Football Picks, Bowl Edition, New Year's Day

Well, I didn't make the big push I wanted to yesterday in the games. I went 2-4, pushing my bowl record to 7-14. This means I've got to win all 11 left to even tie last year's performance. Dangit. However, my beloved Auburn Tigers won in overtime to push the big, bad SEC's record to 4-0...with the best teams still to play.

Welcome to the best possible way to start a New Year if you're a college football fan. If you're a hockey fan, it'd be going to that outdoor hockey game in the football stadium with snow flurries. But you're not. You're a college football fan, and you've got to get up pretty early in the morning, even if you've been out all night, and get your picks in before the Outback Bowl kicks off.

Tennessee vs. Wisconsin (+2) in the Outback Bowl: After the Alabama game, Tennessee's defense got markedly better...and they went after Clemson's offensive coordinator because they just weren't scoring. Wisconsin, on the other hand scores a bunch, but they can't seem to stop anybody. It's one team's strength against another's weakness and vice versa. In a game like that one, go with the team with the most depth. Diner Prediction: Tennessee 23, Wisconsin 20.

Missouri vs. Arkansas (+3.5) in the AT&T Cotton Bowl: The spread offense gives teams that aren't as talented equal footing, and Chase Daniel has been running it since he was in Southlake's middle school system. Arkansas has Darren McFadden and Felix Jones and that's about it. It comes down to whether or not Mizzou can stop them and I don't know that they have the defense to do it, but they've got an offense that can outscore the Hogs. I like Missouri in a close one. Diner Prediction: Missouri 30, Arkansas 27.

Texas Tech vs. Virginia (+6) in the Gator Bowl: Tech can score in bunches, but for some reason, when they get out of conference they struggle. And they've struggled on New Year's Day, too. But then again, Virginia crashes hard in bowl games, too. The players from Virginia are saying it'll be a great job to hold Tech to 25 points and I don't think they're being nice. Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree might have a big day despite struggles in big games in the past. Diner Prediction: Texas Tech 38, Virginia 28

Florida vs. Michigan (+10.5) in the Capital One Bowl: Tim Tebow, the first sophomore to win the Heisman Trophy leads the Gators into a virtual home game. Michigan has had a few ups, but they didn't score very many against Ohio State and the Gators defense is better than Ohio State's. This will be another one of those games where SEC team speed exposes the Big 10 style of play. Why else would a 9-3 Florida team be a 10 point favorite? Diner Prediction: Florida 28, Michigan 13.

U.S.C. vs. Illinois (+13.5) in the Rose Bowl: U.S.C.'s playing as well as anyone in the country right now. Illinois will have to play way above their heads (like they did against Ohio State) to keep it close. I don't think they will play that well even with Ron Zook winning coach of the year this season. It's unfortunate, because the myth of U.S.C.'s prowess will be maintained...so much so that folks are even talking about splitting the national championship if Oklahoma loses and L.S.U. wins ugly. Diner Prediction: U.S.C. 35, Illinois 17.

Georgia vs. Hawai'i (+7.5) in the Allstate Sugar Bowl: The Rainbow Warriors have a lot to prove. They're unbeaten, but they don't play in a BCS conference...much like Boise State of last year. Georgia is playing as well as anyone in the country, too...like Oklahoma was last year. A big difference is that they're playing in New Orleans and SEC schools travel like crazy to that city. There's a lot of folks hoping for another Cinderella storybook ending for Hawaii (and part of me wants to see it, too) but I think the Dawgs have too much firepower at QB and running back. The Rainbows haven't seen a defense this good, and it isn't even the SEC's best one. Diner Prediction: Georgia 33, Hawai'i 24.

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