Friday Football Picks, Week #8
Whew! After awful performances in weeks 5 & 6 (going 6-14) I was able to get back on the winning track last week going 6-4. Not spectacular, but I pulled things out of the ditch for the time being, moving my season record against the point spread to 39-30-1. Let's see if I can keep moving forward this week...
Auburn (+6) at Ole Miss: Auburn has been ahead at halftime in every game. The problem is depth due to injuries on defense, and complete chaos on offense. Houston Nutt has had Ole Miss playing very well this season and it looks like the Rebels might be a year or two away from becoming a real factor in the SEC West again. The deal here is that the weaknesses on both teams are in the secondaries, and Jevon Snead is much more capable of taking advantage of that than Kodi Burns. Not to mention the special teams for Ole Miss are outstanding and Auburn's are struggling. I don't see any way Auburn can keep it under 6 on the road as banged up at they are. Diner Prediction: Ole Miss 24, Auburn 13
Georgia (+5.5) vs. Florida at Jacksonville: Ever since the Gators lost to Ole Miss they've played like a team possessed. Georgia has been inconsistent at best, struggling one week against Bama and then laying the wood to L.S.U. At issue is the reality that Georgia has choked this season with the spotlight on them, while the Gators seem to thrive on it. All eyes will be on this game this weekend for pretty much the championship game of the SEC East. I think the Gators have plenty of firepower and will win this track meet that will look a lot more like a Big 12 game than an SEC defensive struggle. Diner Prediction: Florida 38, Georgia 31.
Texas at Texas Tech (+4): This is the end of the line for the Longhorns. They've been having to ratchet their game up for the last few weeks facing highly ranked teams. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has been lighting up scoreboards, with their most impressive win last weekend on the road against Kansas. Kansas is no slouch on offense and the Red Raiders held them to 21. Texas scored 28 on a better-than-Tech defense. So, with College Gameday making their first appearance ever in Lubbock, I really think that pressure will actually work against Tech. They'd have a better shot on the road trying to prove something...as is, I think the more experienced team will win the day. Diner Prediction: Texas 37, Texas Tech 31.
Nebraska (+22) at Oklahoma: Remember when this game mattered? Remember when Nebraska was even a factor in college football? They have been humbled repeatedly in the last decade while OU has been rolling along whipping the Big 12 ever since Stoops showed up. The game's at OU. The Big Red is a far cry from the days of the Blackshirts and will struggle again Saturday. Nebraska fans keep waiting for a return to Big 8 glory, which they're still two years from thinking seriously about that. Diner Prediction: Oklahoma 45, Nebraska 21.
Pittsburgh (+4.5) at Notre Dame: Notre Dame looked good last week against the worst team in college football last week, which is what you're supposed to do. The deal is that Notre Dame should've been better against that team than they showed. Pitt looked like they'd turned things around until Rutgers took them to the woodshed last week for 54. The Irish are playing better this year and their losses have been to pretty good teams. Pitt's losses are less respectable. As much as I like getting points with Pitt unbeaten on the road, I think Notre Dame's on the way back and will cover (barely) at home. Diner Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Pittsburgh 19.
Oregon (+3) at California: This game features two wide-open offenses. And both of these teams match up well defense to offense. Cal needed 24 fourth quarter points to beat UCLA handily, while Oregon won against them with solid play. It's one where, Cal's home field advantage is among the best in the Pac-10, and I think that really is going to make the difference in this one. They've had a little better success against better competition, and the Ducks have failed to answer the bell in games against good teams. Diner Prediction: California 35, Oregon 31.
Florida State (+2.5) at Georgia Tech: FSU is on a roll, man. They've won four straight, including a hard-fought win last week. They're unbeaten on the road, too. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, has struggled against Gardner-Webb and a weak Clemson team. Grant Field is a good home field, too...but the Seminoles have historically been a great road team. They used to pride themselves on it. Interestingly, they started out as the favorite and the line shifted an entire field goal. Maybe the Vegas folks know something I don't, because I think the 'Noles will win outright. Diner Prediction: Florida State 26, Georgia Tech 17.
Michigan (+2) at Purdue: So, Purdue's lost five in a row. Michigan's lost four in a row. Purdue is 0-4 against ranked teams, while Michigan is 1-1 against them. Both teams average about 20 points a game on offense. Purdue is giving up about 22 per game, while Michigan about 28. I attribute that to Michigan's tougher schedule thus far. So, in short, I think Michigan's a better team between two really bad football teams. So, I get points and the better team? As good a logic as any, I suppose. Diner Prediction: Michigan 27, Purdue 24.
Miami (+2.5) at Virginia: Miami's wins haven't been all that impressive and this is the week they're starting the meat of their schedule. Virginia, on the other hand, has been steadily getting better week in and week out with a schedule that could've taken them out of contention early. The Cavaliers have pulled together and have become a team, and I think the Hurricanes will fight them hard, I like the Cavs at home in Charlottesville. Diner Prediction: Virginia 17, Miami 13.
Wisconsin (+4.5) at Michigan State: Both of these teams have been blown out by the upper tier of the Big 10. The Spartans were throttled in their only game against a ranked team this season, but other than that, the've held their own against teams they should've beaten. Their only blemish other than that is against an offensive-minded Cal team. Wisconsin took Ohio State to the wire and beat a good Fresno State team...and played better against the same teams on the schedule. It's tough to go against Michigan State at home, and when Wisconsin hasn't won on the road this year, I'll take the home points even if the team isn't as strong. Diner Prediction: Michigan State 21, Wisconsin 16.
Well, there you have it, sports fans! What do you think'll happen this week?
Whew! After awful performances in weeks 5 & 6 (going 6-14) I was able to get back on the winning track last week going 6-4. Not spectacular, but I pulled things out of the ditch for the time being, moving my season record against the point spread to 39-30-1. Let's see if I can keep moving forward this week...
Auburn (+6) at Ole Miss: Auburn has been ahead at halftime in every game. The problem is depth due to injuries on defense, and complete chaos on offense. Houston Nutt has had Ole Miss playing very well this season and it looks like the Rebels might be a year or two away from becoming a real factor in the SEC West again. The deal here is that the weaknesses on both teams are in the secondaries, and Jevon Snead is much more capable of taking advantage of that than Kodi Burns. Not to mention the special teams for Ole Miss are outstanding and Auburn's are struggling. I don't see any way Auburn can keep it under 6 on the road as banged up at they are. Diner Prediction: Ole Miss 24, Auburn 13
Georgia (+5.5) vs. Florida at Jacksonville: Ever since the Gators lost to Ole Miss they've played like a team possessed. Georgia has been inconsistent at best, struggling one week against Bama and then laying the wood to L.S.U. At issue is the reality that Georgia has choked this season with the spotlight on them, while the Gators seem to thrive on it. All eyes will be on this game this weekend for pretty much the championship game of the SEC East. I think the Gators have plenty of firepower and will win this track meet that will look a lot more like a Big 12 game than an SEC defensive struggle. Diner Prediction: Florida 38, Georgia 31.
Texas at Texas Tech (+4): This is the end of the line for the Longhorns. They've been having to ratchet their game up for the last few weeks facing highly ranked teams. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has been lighting up scoreboards, with their most impressive win last weekend on the road against Kansas. Kansas is no slouch on offense and the Red Raiders held them to 21. Texas scored 28 on a better-than-Tech defense. So, with College Gameday making their first appearance ever in Lubbock, I really think that pressure will actually work against Tech. They'd have a better shot on the road trying to prove something...as is, I think the more experienced team will win the day. Diner Prediction: Texas 37, Texas Tech 31.
Nebraska (+22) at Oklahoma: Remember when this game mattered? Remember when Nebraska was even a factor in college football? They have been humbled repeatedly in the last decade while OU has been rolling along whipping the Big 12 ever since Stoops showed up. The game's at OU. The Big Red is a far cry from the days of the Blackshirts and will struggle again Saturday. Nebraska fans keep waiting for a return to Big 8 glory, which they're still two years from thinking seriously about that. Diner Prediction: Oklahoma 45, Nebraska 21.
Pittsburgh (+4.5) at Notre Dame: Notre Dame looked good last week against the worst team in college football last week, which is what you're supposed to do. The deal is that Notre Dame should've been better against that team than they showed. Pitt looked like they'd turned things around until Rutgers took them to the woodshed last week for 54. The Irish are playing better this year and their losses have been to pretty good teams. Pitt's losses are less respectable. As much as I like getting points with Pitt unbeaten on the road, I think Notre Dame's on the way back and will cover (barely) at home. Diner Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Pittsburgh 19.
Oregon (+3) at California: This game features two wide-open offenses. And both of these teams match up well defense to offense. Cal needed 24 fourth quarter points to beat UCLA handily, while Oregon won against them with solid play. It's one where, Cal's home field advantage is among the best in the Pac-10, and I think that really is going to make the difference in this one. They've had a little better success against better competition, and the Ducks have failed to answer the bell in games against good teams. Diner Prediction: California 35, Oregon 31.
Florida State (+2.5) at Georgia Tech: FSU is on a roll, man. They've won four straight, including a hard-fought win last week. They're unbeaten on the road, too. Georgia Tech, on the other hand, has struggled against Gardner-Webb and a weak Clemson team. Grant Field is a good home field, too...but the Seminoles have historically been a great road team. They used to pride themselves on it. Interestingly, they started out as the favorite and the line shifted an entire field goal. Maybe the Vegas folks know something I don't, because I think the 'Noles will win outright. Diner Prediction: Florida State 26, Georgia Tech 17.
Michigan (+2) at Purdue: So, Purdue's lost five in a row. Michigan's lost four in a row. Purdue is 0-4 against ranked teams, while Michigan is 1-1 against them. Both teams average about 20 points a game on offense. Purdue is giving up about 22 per game, while Michigan about 28. I attribute that to Michigan's tougher schedule thus far. So, in short, I think Michigan's a better team between two really bad football teams. So, I get points and the better team? As good a logic as any, I suppose. Diner Prediction: Michigan 27, Purdue 24.
Miami (+2.5) at Virginia: Miami's wins haven't been all that impressive and this is the week they're starting the meat of their schedule. Virginia, on the other hand, has been steadily getting better week in and week out with a schedule that could've taken them out of contention early. The Cavaliers have pulled together and have become a team, and I think the Hurricanes will fight them hard, I like the Cavs at home in Charlottesville. Diner Prediction: Virginia 17, Miami 13.
Wisconsin (+4.5) at Michigan State: Both of these teams have been blown out by the upper tier of the Big 10. The Spartans were throttled in their only game against a ranked team this season, but other than that, the've held their own against teams they should've beaten. Their only blemish other than that is against an offensive-minded Cal team. Wisconsin took Ohio State to the wire and beat a good Fresno State team...and played better against the same teams on the schedule. It's tough to go against Michigan State at home, and when Wisconsin hasn't won on the road this year, I'll take the home points even if the team isn't as strong. Diner Prediction: Michigan State 21, Wisconsin 16.
Well, there you have it, sports fans! What do you think'll happen this week?
.jpg){kind=avatar}
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home