Friday Football Picks, Week 5

I went 6-4 against the point spread last week, taking the season record to 27-12-1. Not too shabby, and it's pretty good now that we're in conference play as well. So, on to this week's games as the stakes become bigger and the races get tighter:

Arkansas (+18.5) at Auburn: What in the heck is going on at Auburn? You fire your offensive coordinator in the middle of the season? In the middle of the week? Reason #34,239 that football is taken WAY TOO SERIOUSLY in the Deep South: Auburn is paying this year's O.C. and last year's O.C. nearly $600,000 NOT TO COACH this year. The funny part, you ask? The line only went down half a point the day after AU fired the guy that runs the offense. If Auburn hasn't scored more than two TD's in an SEC game since the start of the season, I can't see them suddenly scoring a ton with all this week has brought on The Plains...even with Arkansas being as bad as they are this year. Diner Prediction: Auburn 27, Arkansas 16.

L.S.U. (+6) at Florida: L.S.U. is the defending national champs. The Gators did it two years ago. Both have good offenses, but I think Florida's is a touch better with a Heisman Trophy WINNER and Percy Harvin being gamebreakers. Both have good defenses, but I think L.S.U.'s is better on the defensive line. I think L.S.U.'s special teams superiority is offset by the Gator home field advantage. I think this one goes to the wire, and while I think the better team won't win, they'll cover. Diner Prediction: Florida 27, L.S.U. 24.

Tennessee (+13.5) at Georgia: Georgia got throttled by the Vols last year...and they haven't forgotten. The national championship pressure was erased with the Dawgs getting their hides tanned by Alabama two weeks ago, and Tennessee struggled against Northern Illinois last week. Mark Richt is a great coach after a loss. They've had a week off. They've got revenge. They've got a national stage to redeem themselves. The Vols have a coach on the hot seat for good reason. Diner Prediction: Georgia 35, Tennessee 13.

Oklahoma State (+14) at Missouri: Oh, man do I ever love an upstart underdog. I like everything about the Cowboys. Quarterback. Coach. Developing talent. Commitment to winning (read: T. Boone Pickens' wallet). And you get points on the road in this case. But for every good existential vibe there's a more talented player in a Tiger uniform. And, my suspicion is that they even held back a little bit last week once they got up on the Big Red on the road. Chase Daniel will be too much this year...but the Cowboys will be a factor next year, man. Diner Prediction: Missouri 34, Oklahoma State 17.

Penn State at Wisconsin (+5): Wisconsin lost at home last week to an Ohio State team ride their quarterback to a last minute touchdown. This is after the Badgers struggled against a Michigan team. And, I don't think either one of those teams is as complete as Penn State. My only question is whether or not the Nittany Lions can play with the new Big Ten front-running target on their backs. I think Paterno can keep them focused. Diner Prediction: Penn State 24, Wisconsin 17.

Oklahoma vs. Texas (+7) at Dallas, TX: Being in Dallas we've heard the normal hype about the game. And by normal hype I mean analyzed to death every day in every form of sports media available. They can talk all they want about Will Muschamp's defense and how he's got Texas playing serious D. But here's the little secret about Will Muschamp's defenses (as any Auburn fan can tell you): It's high risk, high reward. They either give up big plays or make big plays. Their problem is that Sam Bradford's OU team has big play ability. Stoops has generally outcoached Mack Brown in every Texas-OU game that didn't involve Vince Young...and sometimes by big margins. I think OU will have more than enough. Diner Prediction: Oklahoma 31, Texas 21.

Nebraska (+20.5) at Texas Tech: Nebraska gave up a bunch of points to Mizzou at home...that'd be 52. They only scored 17. I think there's little question that Texas Tech's offense is better than Mizzou's even if their defense isn't as good, either, giving up 28 to K-State. So, I think Tech can score plenty which will be more than enough to cover, especially at home where Leach likes to keep the fans happy. The Big Red will be back under Pelini, but not this year. Diner Prediction: Texas Tech 59, Nebraska 31

Notre Dame (+7.5) at North Carolina: How does a school like Notre Dame give up a home game to an ACC school? Butch Davis' name is being whispered in Auburn's circles as rumblings about Tuberville and his management style aren't pleasing to power brokers at AU. For good reason. The guy can coach. And his Tar Heels are playing above their heads in a weak ACC this year, and Notre Dame is playing better than in the past. I'm tempted to take the Irish straight up, but, I think Butch Davis knows that bigger & better programs are taking notice and will be trying to impress each and every week. Diner Prediction: North Carolina 23, Notre Dame 14.

New Mexico (+23) at Brigham Young: Max Hall is throwing for 300 yards a game out there in Provo. 17 TD's in 5 games. 4 interceptions. Seriously. The Lobos aren't nearly as prolific, even in the defense-free Mountain West. The Cougars win at home and win big and Max Hall's whispers about Heisman contention become normal conversation. They'll score a lot and play better defense than the MWC is used to. Diner Prediction: B.Y.U. 44, New Mexico 20.

Arizona State (+27.5) at U.S.C.: U.S.C. got their revenge last week with an impressive show against the Ducks. They're at home again, and if it weren't for Sanchez' gimpy knee--I wouldn't mind giving the Sun Devils four TD's. But his knee is gimpy and IF he lasts long enough and IF they get a sizable lead, they'll sit him down. I've seen Mark Sanchez. I've watched Mark Sanchez, and Mitch Mustain is no Mark Sanchez. The Trojans win, but they're looking big picture trying to climb back into the national championship race. U.S.C. 38, Arizona State 24.

There you have it, football fans! What do you think?